The old man is at it again He’s trying to play a “restrained strongman”, by saying “I don’t want escalation”, while simultaneously threatening overwhelming destruction.
It’s classic deterrence language, but it’s turned up to 100.
In case you missed this “gem”, check it out below.
Lets break this down, and define what this post truly says about the War in Iran.
Israel
He’s distancing the U.S. from Israel’s actions. The “The United States knew nothing …” line is doing a ton of work in this post.
He’s trying to avoid immediate blowback and escalation from Iran by saying it. He even adds Qatar into the mix stating they, “were in no way, shape, or form, involved”.
The Qatar line tells us a couple things actually.
First, he’s removed the “Israel vs Iran” narrative, and has replaced it with “Iran attacked Qatar”. This shifts the the narrative from the U.S. being involved because of Israel, and plants it on the U.S. is defending it’s ally, Qatar.
I would not be surprised if we start seeing more of this narrative in his Truth Social posts going forward. It’s Donald Trump, and he may call every media outlet fake news, but he cannot stand the negative coverage.
South Pars
Trump is trying hard top draw a red line with this one. Again, defending U.S. ally Qatar with, “If Qatar’s LNG gets hit again, we level South Pars”. That is not vague diplomacy, that is a direct and conditional threat.
“Blow up the entirety” is meant to scare Iran. It’s not surgical, it’s total. Obviously, this is meant to make Iran back off immediately. Notice he asserts who knew what, who did what, who’s fault is really is.
In the expected Donald way, he’s trying to control the narrative before the facts hit the public. He has done this repeatedly during his spotlight in politics the past decade. He starts the narrative with posts like this, and that allows his MAGA cultists on social media and administration to argue on his behalf.
It’s actually genius, if you are trying to become a dictator.
The Red Line
“NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL” and the “with or without the help or consent of Israel” both hit hard.
Those two quotes alone show Trump trying to shift the idea of the U.S. being controlled by Israel. He sees the “Benjamin Netanyahu is the worst U.S. President ever” on X. Trump can’t handle that criticism.
With Netanyahu’s status being unknown, maybe this is his golden opportunity?
Zoom out a little bit, and you must understand this exact thing has been happening for decades with the United States in foreign policy.
The U.S. claims it’s not involved. Immediately defines who is the good guys vs the bad guys are. Then they draw a line that effectively guarantees we will be involved the “next” time. It’s all built on the assumption that the U.S. should be the referee, enforcer, and the ultimate authority in the Middle East.
Most Americans don’t understand and have no direct stake in the Middle East.
It always ends the same way with more escalation, more risk, and eventually American blood money on the line.
The real problem isn’t whether Trump’s threat is strong or weak, but why does the United States even put themselves in position to make these threats at all?
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